In this paper we address the issue of the efficient estimation of the cointegrating vector in linear regression models with variables that follow general (higher order and fractionally) integrated processes.

Brief summaries and user instruction are presented for the programs TRAMO ("Time Series regression with ARIMA Noise, Missing Observations and Outlers") and SEATS ("Signal Extraction in ARIMA Time Series").

En este trabajo estudiamos las características y los determinantes de las desviaciones entre las cifras iniciales y finales de los ingresos y gastos públicos incluidos en los presupuestos generales del Estado en el período 1985-2006. Nuestro objetivo es evaluar el grado de cumplimiento del...

Model uncertainty hampers consensus on the main determinants of corporate default. We employ Bayesian model averaging (BMA) techniques in order to shed light on this issue. Empirical findings suggest that the most robust determinants of corporate default are firm-specific variables such as the...

We study the effects that the Maastricht treaty, the creation of the ECB, and the Euro changeover had on the dynamics of European business cycles using a panel VAR and data from ten European countries - seven from the Euro area and three outside of it. There are slow changes in the features of...

This paper considers estimation and inference in panel vector autoregressions with fixed effects when the time dimension of the panel is finite, and the cross-sectional dimension is large. A Maximum Likelihood estimator based on a transformed likelihood function is proposed and shown to be...

This paper "tests" the performance of the approaches of Watson (1993), DeJong, Ingram and Whiteman (1996), Canova and De Nicolo (1995) and Ortega (1998) for evaluating stochastic dynamic general equilibrium models using Monte Carlo techniques. It asks: Do different model evaluation methodologies...

We propose a new method for analysing multiperiod stress scenarios for portfolio credit risk more systematically than in the current practice of macro stress testing. Our method quantifies the plausibility of scenarios by considering the distance of the stress scenario from an average scenario....

This paper studies the loss of human capital that emigration generates in the country of origin. To that end I estimate the human capital distribution of emigrants had they not migrated. Unlike previous studies, I take into account the selection of migrants in terms of unobserved characteristics...