En este trabajo se cuantifica el contenido informativo de los Índices de Confianza utilizados por el Banco de la República en la elaboración de su Informe sobre Inflación. Se estudian las frecuencias a las que ocurren sus variaciones y se comparan con las frecuencias de medidas similares de...

This work analyzes the relationship between real interest rates and commodity prices. According to Frankel’s hypothesis (1986-2006): "low real interest rates lead to high real commodity prices". However, some empirical evidence suggests that commodity prices can predict monetary policy. In...

The Colombian economy and financial system have coped reasonably well with the effects of the global financial crisis. Hence, "unconventional" policy measures have not been at the center of the policy decisions and discussions. Nominal short term interest rates have remained the main monetary...

Las economías emergentes más dependientes del sector minero-energético, enfrentan el riesgo de que, a medida que aumente la participación de este último dentro del PIB, el crecimiento de su gasto público llegue a desbordarse y adquiera connotaciones cada vez más pro-cíclicas,...

We explore the performance of a set of early warning indicators for a group of Latin American economies under the endogenous cycle perspective. For this group of countries, the paper confirms the results of work on industrialized countries that a combination of asset prices and credit provides...

This paper studies the performance,in terms of volatility and welfare, of different monetary policy rules in an economy with two market frictions.We consider a financial friction that highlights the credit channel as the monetary transmission mechanism and a labor friction, that considerably...

Una estimación adecuada de la brecha del producto es un requisito indispensable para la conducción de la política monetaria bajo el régimen de inflación objetivo. Por esta razón, en la literatura y al interior del Banco de la República, se trabaja con una gran variedad de mediciones a...

Colombian monthly data covering the period from 1995:01 to 2002:11 and ECM, fixed and time-varying parameters and Kalman filter techniques are used in this paper to quantify the exchange rate pass-through effects on import prices within a sample of manufactured imports. Also, whether the foreign...

The paper develops a New Keynesian Small Open Economy Model charac- terized by external habit formation and Calvo price setting with dynamic inflation updating. The model is used to analyze the e¤ect of nominal ex- change rate targeting on optimal policy and impulse responses. It is found that...

A Statement of the Colombian Constitutional Court has mandated wage indexation on the basis of past inflation. A simple model with a wage price system, a real block, and an inflation targeting interest rule is calibrated to resemble price setting in the Colombian economy and to analize the...