This paper reviews the theory of balance-of-payments crises, and its implications for identifying potential leading indicators of crises. It discusses and evaluates three different empirical approaches to balance-of-payments crises: the signalling, discrete-choice, and structural approaches....

Many emerging market economy (EME) financial crises in the 1990s quickly spread to other countries. By contrast, spillovers from the Argentina crisis in 2001-02 appear to have been much more limited. Why do some crises spread widely and others do not? In this paper the joint importance of...

This paper offers an analytical framework with which to assess some recent proposals for strengthening the international financial architecture. A model is developed of sovereign liquidity crises that reflect two sources of financial stress - weak fundamentals and self-fulfilling expectations....