This paper analyses the role of credit rating agencies in sovereign debt crises. Using a panel of 53 emerging and developing countries with annual data going back to 1977, the paper shows that credit ratings are not very good predictors of debt distress events once tested against a simple...

In order to assess the effect of fiscal rules in Stage Three of EMU for France and Germany, Bayoumi and Eichengreen's (1992) structural V.A.R. analysis is extended by including the general government financial surplus and conditioning by external variables. This allows a distinction between...

The present paper assesses the impact of fiscal policy on residential investment in France. The analysis is conducted in the framework of a VECM, since this allows accounting for endogeneity between the variables. Our results imply that a long term relationship between investment and subsidies...

We assess the role played by fiscal policy in explaining the dynamics of asset markets. Using a panel of ten industrialized countries, we show that a positive fiscal shock has a negative impact in both stock and housing prices. However, while stock prices immediately adjust to the shock and the...

This paper shows that the impact of changes in budgetary variables on major macroeconomic variables varies in sign and magnitude in times of crisis and non-crisis in France. We find that these nonlinearities are both frequent (as they exist on all behaviors analyzed: real GDP, private...

In this paper, we examine whether the fact that governments incorporate an objective of sustainability in their budgetary decisions is an element likely to increase the likelihood of a decrease in their deficit and debt ratios beyond the crisis (over the years from 2010 to 2015). We estimate a...