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Boivin, J.; Giannoni, M. - Banque de France - 2007

Standard practice for the estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models maintains the assumption that economic variables are properly measured by a single indicator, and that all relevant information for the estimation is summarized by a small number of data series. However,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004998848

MASCOTTE: Model for AnalySing and foreCasting shOrT TErm developments

Baghli, M.; Brunhes-Lesage, V.; De bandt, O.; Fraisse, H.; … - Banque de France - 2004

MASCOTTE is the new version of the Banque de France's macro-econometric forecasting model. Following the last rebasing …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005056499

The Reliability of Macroeconomic Forecasts based on Real Interest Rate Gap Estimates in Real Time: an Assessment for the Euro Area.

Mésonnier, J-S. - Banque de France - 2006

The real interest rate gap or IRG -the gap between the short term real interest rate and its "natural" level-, is a theoretical concept that has attracted much attention in central banks in recent years. This paper aims at clarifying its practical relevance for monetary policy in real time. For...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004998811

Inflation Target Shocks and Monetary Policy Inertia in the Euro Area

Fève, P.; Matheron, J.; Sahuc, J-G. - Banque de France - 2009

The Euro area as a whole has experienced a marked downward trend in inflation over the past decades and, concomitantly, a protracted period of depressed activity. Can permanent and gradual shifts in monetary policy be held responsible for these dynamics? To answer this question, we embed...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008556976

Tails of Inflation Forecasts and Tales of Monetary Policy

Andrade, P.; Ghysels, E.; Idier, J. - Banque de France - 2012

We introduce a new measure called Inflation-at-Risk (I@R) associated with (left and right) tail inflation risk. We estimate I@R using survey-based density forecasts. We show that it contains information not covered by usual inflation risk indicators which focus on inflation uncertainty and do...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010815970

Euro Area monetary policy shocks: impact on financial asset prices during the crisis?

Jardet, C.; Monks, A. - Banque de France - 2014

expectations for the future path of these rates. We undertake regression analysis in order to determine the impact of monetary …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010938544

The changing role of expectations in US monetary policy: A new look using the Livingston Survey

Banerjee, A.; Malik, S. - Banque de France - 2012

monetary policy in the United States, in particular its interaction with the formation of inflation expectations and the … linkages between monetary policy, inflation expectations and the behaviour of CPI inflation. We use Livingston Survey data for …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010816004

Price Stability and The ECB's Monetary Policy Strategy

Bordes, C.; Clerc, L. - Banque de France - 2004

exclusively on the anchoring of short- to medium-term inflation expectations (Part 2). Several measures show that this anchoring … expectations has on the determination of the short- to medium-term inflation rate. From this point of view, observed inflation in … expectations in the medium to long term. Even though this assessment is more difficult than it is in the short to medium term …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005056542

Choosing the variables to estimate singular DSGE models.

Canova, F.; Ferroni, F.; Matthes, C. - Banque de France - 2013

We propose two methods to choose the variables to be used in the estimation of the structural parameters of a singular DSGE model. The first selects the vector of observables that optimizes parameter identification; the second the vector that minimizes the informational discrepancy between the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010815999

Bubble-free interest-rate rules.

Loisel, O. - Banque de France - 2006

This paper designs, for a broad class of rational-expectations dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium models, interest …' expectations), while in all models non-forward-looking interest-rate rules exist which ensure only the local determinacy of the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004998843