The aim of this paper is to build and estimate a macroeconomic model of credit risk for the French manufacturing sector. This model is based on Wilson's CreditPortfolioView model (1997a, 1997b); it enables us to simulate loss distributions for a credit portfolio for several macroeconomic...

This paper proposes a classification of the old member countries of the euro area in a structural data rich environment and run a convergence analysis using the same framework. First, we use a clustering approach and identify two structurally distinct groups of countries that are not modified...

In this paper, I use a two-country model to investigate the incentives which lead one country to take charge of another country's debt. I show that, when direct transfers to residents cannot be perfectly targeted, the first country can be better o_ honoring the second country's liabilities, even...

This paper studies firms' price-setting decision during a currency changeover. Buyers' difficulties with the new nominal price level create incentives to raise prices temporarily but doing so comes at the risk of damaging a seller's reputation in the long run. We model firms' trade-off and study...

In this study we compare the quality and information content of risk neutral densities obtained by various methods. We consider a non-parametric method based on a mixture of log-normal densities, the semi-parametric ones based on an Hermite approximation of Madan and Milne, or based on an...

Nous comparons dans ce papier la qualite et le contenu en information des densites neutres au risque, obtenus a partir de differentes representations de ces densites: l'approche non-parametrique fondee sur un melange de densites log-normales; les formulations semi-parametriques fondees sur...

The surge in capital inflows towards emerging countries after 2009 has revived the debate about capital controls. This paper analyzes some of the international implications of restrictions on capital inflows. Focusing on a sample of Latin-American countries, we use detailed balance of payments...

Sur la base d’un échantillon représentatif des organismes d’assurance-vie et non-vie, il apparaît que les assureurs ont poursuivi en 2013 le rétablissement de leurs comptes en dépit d’un environnement macroéconomique resté morose. En assurance vie, la collecte nette est redevenue...

Le 6 novembre 2014, le Conseil de stabilité financière (CSF/FSB) a publié simultanément une liste de trente groupes bancaires et une liste de neuf groupes d’assurance systémiques à l’échelle mondiale. Cette publication est l’aboutissement de travaux annuels du Comité de Bâle et de...

La collecte nette du troisième trimestre 2014 s’établit à 3 milliards d’euros pour les douze assureurs de l’échantillon sous revue1, portant le total depuis le début de l’année 2014 à 7,4 milliards d’euros. Les contrats en unités de compte (UC) représentent un segment...