Showing 71 - 80 of 94
Kalman filtering is used as a method of analysing the expectation formulation procedures employed by companies. The filter permits a number of alternative representations of managers' models of their firms activities to be compared. Applying the procedure to United Kingdom data on expectations,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005281335
The principal argument of the paper is that in an incomplete information setting, where the private sector lacks information on goverment objectives and has to learn about the policy rule by direct observation and estimation, simple `sub-optimal' rules may outperform the more complicated rule...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005281364
Floating exchange rates display substantial short-run volatility causing a nontrivial information problem in disentangling temporary from permanent changes. Although agents observe current market signals they are imperfectly informed about the future, but they accumulate information and learn...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067427
We examine optimal policy in a two-country model with uncertainty and learning, where monetary policy actions affect … because of the interaction between the home and foreign central banks. In a two-country symmetric equilibrium, learning is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067656
We respond to the challenge of explaining the Great Inflation by building a coherent framework in which both learning … improves our ability to explain the Great Inflation with a learning model. Bayesian MCMC estimation results are encouraging and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114224
This paper introduces adaptive learning and endogenous indexation in the New-Keynesian Phillips curve and studies … adaptive learning lowers the cost of disinflation. This reduction can be exploited by a gradual approach to disinflation. Firms …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114241
incorporates learning and a regime switch with time-varying transition probabilities. If a given regime represents a riskier …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114366
. Learning about the transmission process of monetary policy is introduced by having heterogeneous agents - i.e. the central bank …. Here following Evans and Honkapohja (2001), the learning scheme we investigate is that of least-squares learning (recursive … OLS) using the Kalman filter. We find that optimal monetary policy under learning is a policy that separates estimation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114493
been the subject of much debate. This paper investigates the role of culture as learning in this change. To do so, it … women who work in the market versus the home. These beliefs evolve rationally via an intergenerational learning process … what is found in the data. The S shape results from the dynamics of learning. I calibrate the model to several key …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005656274
Sargent (1999) warns that if policy makers’ views on the unemployment-inflation trade-off are driven by empirical correlations, rather than theory, disinflations (escapes from high to low inflation) may periodically occur but are not bound to last. This Paper asks how different inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005656361