controls also appear to be less motivated by worries about financial market volatility or fickle capital flows per se, but … inflation and output volatility. Moreover, countries with a high level of capital controls, and those actively implementing …

This paper considers the evidence for volatility clustering and transmission in six bilateral Deutsche mark ERM … given by the two distributions, each observation is classified to one or other category. The phenomenon of volatility … clustering in a given bilateral exchange rate series is then studied by means of a non-parametric test, while volatility …

of the US trade balance. It employs a Bayesian structural VAR model that requires imposing only a minimum of economically … current account in the past, accounting for up to 30% of the movements of the US trade balance at a horizon of 20 quarters. By … the US trade balance. Our findings suggest that large exchange rate movements may not necessarily be the key element of an …

interest rate volatility? How important have capital controls been for the operation of the EMS? Has the Exchange Rate … Mechanism reduced the volatility of unanticipated exchange rate changes? Has the EMS been effective in making ERM currencies … (real or nominal, bilateral or effective) exchange rate volatility? If so, has this been at the expense of increased …

participant countries in the ERM. Supplementing these correlations with criteria based on real exchange rate volatility, trade and …