Fratzscher, Marcel; Juvenal, Luciana; Sarno, Lucio - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009
of the US trade balance. It employs a Bayesian structural VAR model that requires imposing only a minimum of economically … current account in the past, accounting for up to 30% of the movements of the US trade balance at a horizon of 20 quarters. By … the US trade balance. Our findings suggest that large exchange rate movements may not necessarily be the key element of an …
