northwestern parts. In the advanced parts of India and China, grain wages were comparable to those in northwestern Europe, but … silver wages, which conferred purchasing power over tradable goods and services, were substantially lower. The high silver … wages of northwestern Europe were not simply a monetary phenomenon, but reflected high productivity in the tradable sector …

monthly and quarterly oil prices. There also has been increased interest in the link between financial markets and oil markets … obvious advantage of financial data in forecasting oil prices is their availability in real time on a daily or weekly basis …

, the factor-based forecasts are shown to improve upon standard benchmarks for prices, real aggregates, and financial … variables, model it using a dynamic factor model, and compare the resulting forecasts with those from a set of standard time … variables such as interest rates, monetary aggregates, prices, housing and labour market variables, and stock prices. Finally …

The study analyses the characteristics of professional exchange rate forecasts for the €/US$ rate. The results indicate … that the quality of forecasts produced by professional economists is rather poor and incompatible with the rational … expectations hypothesis. This dismal result is according to our analysis attributed to the fact that professional forecasts are to …

performance of factor models. We complement the analysis with an empirical evaluation of forecasts for the key macroeconomic … factor-based forecasts in short samples with structural change. …

how published forecasts can be used and we derive a measure of fiscal pressure suitable for the medium term. We find that …

question is whether such rules-of-thumb should draw on policymakers' forecasts of key variables such as inflation and …