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Leading Indicators: What Have We Learned?

Marcellino, Massimiliano - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005

the most relevant recent developments in this field of economic forecasting. To begin with, we analyse the problem of … leading indicator based forecasts, and review the recent literature on the forecasting performance of leading indicators. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666459

The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles

Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2014

which are typically followed by deeper recessions and slower recoveries. Housing finance has come to play a central role in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083232

Hysteresis and Economic Fluctuations (Spain, 1970-94)

Dolado, Juan J.; López-Salido, J David - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1996

This paper uses long-run restrictions on a three-variable system containing output growth, real wage growth and the differenced unemployment rate, to isolate three 'structural' shocks which drove business cycle fluctuations in Spain during 1970-94. These shocks are interpreted as aggregate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124406

Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions

Giannone, Domenico; Lenza, Michele; Primiceri, Giorgio E - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2012

-of-sample forecasting, and accuracy in the estimation of impulse response functions. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083403

Macroeconomic Forecasting and Structural Change

D'Agostino, Antonello; Gambetti, Luca; Giannone, Domenico - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009

The aim of this paper is to assess whether explicitly modeling structural change increases the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts. We produce real time out-of-sample forecasts for inflation, the unemployment rate and the interest rate using a Time-Varying Coefficients VAR with Stochastic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008472106

Forecasting and Turning Point Predictions in a Bayesian Panel VAR Model

Canova, Fabio; Ciccarelli, Matteo - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2001

We provide methods for forecasting variables and predicting turning points in panel Bayesian VARs. We specify a … point and average forecasts are provided. An application to the problem of forecasting the growth rate of output and of … predicting turning points in the G-7 illustrates the approach. A comparison with alternative forecasting methods is also provided. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504253

The Diversity of Forecasts from Macroeconomic Models of the U.S. Economy

Wieland, Volker; Wolters, Maik H - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010

the four preceding NBER-dated U.S. recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the U.S. economy and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008530347

Institutions and Business Cycles

Altug, Sumru G.; Emin, Mustafa; Neyapti, Bilin - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2012

This paper investigates the relationship between the main features of business cycles and the institutional and structural characteristics of countries of up to 62 industrial, emerging and formerly centrally planned economies from all continents. We derive the business cycle characteristics...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083779

Explaining The Great Moderation: It Is Not The Shocks

Giannone, Domenico; Lenza, Michele; Reichlin, Lucrezia - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007

This paper shows that the explanation of the decline in the volatility of GDP growth since the mid-eighties is not the decline in the volatility of exogenous shocks but rather a change in their propagation mechanism.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666727

Business Cycles around the Globe: A Regime-switching Approach

Altug, Sumru G.; Bildirici, Melike - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010

This paper characterizes business cycle phenomena in a sample of 27 developed and developing economies using a univariate Markov regime switching approach. It examines the efficacy of this approach for detecting business cycle turning points and for identifying distinct economic regimes for each...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008466348