There is a widespread belief that changes in expectations may be an important independent driver of economic … which changes in agents' information, due to the arrival of news, can cause business cycle fluctuations driven by …

What is the impact of surprise and anticipated policy changes when agents form expectations using adaptive learning … rather than rational expectations? We examine this issue using the standard stochastic real business cycle model with lump …-shaped response, and tend to be prominently characterized by oscillations not present under rational expectations. These fluctuations …

information about the economy; and (iii) imperfect substitution among private goods and goods provided by the government. An … increase in government spending raises the demand for private goods and raises firms' expectations about what others will be …

2011 shifted expectations in oil markets, resulting in a price increase of between 3 and 13 dollars, depending on the …

What is the impact of surprise and anticipated policy changes when agents form expectations using adaptive learning … rather than rational expectations? We examine this issue using the standard stochastic real business cycle model with lump …-shaped response, and tend to be prominently characterized by oscillations not present under rational expectations. These fluctuations …

We examine the role of expectations in the Great Moderation episode. We derive theoretical restrictions in a New …-Keynesian model and test them using measures of expectations obtained from survey data, the Greenbook and bond markets. Expectations … without expectations display similar reduced form characteristics. Results are robust to changes in the structure of the …

negatively correlated with expected changes in exchange rates and vary more than expectations about future exchange rate … current exchange rates have little or no informational content about the market's expectations of future exchange rate …

concerning agents' expectations, subject only to the restriction that forecasting errors are stationary. It is also demonstrated …

market-based measures of expectations are similar to survey-based forecasts although the market-based measures somewhat more …