This Paper examines changes in the distribution of wages using bounds to allow for the impact of non-random selection … into work. We show that bounds constructed without any economic or statistical assumptions can be informative. Since … we explore ways to tighten these bounds using restrictions motivated from economic theory. With these assumptions we find …

that bound various average and quantile effects. For these bounds, consistent, nonparametric estimators are proposed. In a …

limited; prediction based upon this series is typically outperformed by naive, non-indicator methods. The information content …

to new uncertain observations that are less important for welfare and introduces a bias in prediction. Prudent … less strongly to new measurements of the output gap. Prudence attenuates this policy reaction and biases the prediction of …