If one ranks cities by population, the rank of a city is inversely related to its size, a well-documented phenomenon … known as Zipf's Law. Further, the growth rate of a city's population is uncorrelated with its size, another well … size distributions of cities and countries are similar. But theories that explain the size-distribution of cities do not …

We investigate the geographical distribution of economic activity and wages in a general equilibrium model with many … asymmetric regions and costly trade. As shown by extensive simulations on random networks, local market size better explains a … 'generalized transport costs'. The latter had only small impacts on changes in the geographical distribution of economic activity …

, an emission-decomposition exercise shows that scale effects are dominated by technique effects working towards a …

We provide methods for forecasting variables and predicting turning points in panel Bayesian VARs. We specify a … point and average forecasts are provided. An application to the problem of forecasting the growth rate of output and of … predicting turning points in the G-7 illustrates the approach. A comparison with alternative forecasting methods is also provided. …

reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naïve … environment, we analyse the forecasting behaviour of students experimentally, using a simulated currency series. Our results … indicate that topically-oriented trend adjustment behaviour (TOTA) is a general characteristic of human forecasting behaviour …

forecasting performance of two crucial modelling choices, i.e. the imposition of no-arbitrage restrictions and the size of the …This paper addresses the issue of forecasting the term structure. We provide a unified state-space modelling framework … information set used to extract factors. Using US yield curve data, we find that: a. macro factors are very useful in forecasting …