This Paper is the result of the Bank of Italy-CEPR project to construct a monthly coincident indicator of the business cycle of the euro area. The index is estimated on the basis of a harmonized data set of monthly statistics of the euro area (951 series) which we constructed from a variety of...

Our answer: not so well. We reach that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the...

We provide methods for forecasting variables and predicting turning points in panel Bayesian VARs. We specify a flexible model that accounts for both interdependencies in the cross section and time variations in the parameters. Posterior distributions for the parameters are obtained for...

This paper investigates the possibility of endogenous fluctuations in the international distribution of economic activities in the presence of increasing returns, monopolistic competition, trade and convex adjustment costs without allowing for any local productive externalities. Using a...

This Paper suggests that skill accumulation through past work experience, or ‘learning-by-doing’ (LBD), can provide an important propagation mechanism in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, as the current labour supply affects future productivity. Our econometric analysis uses a...

This paper investigates the effects of introducing household production in an international real business cycle model. We show how a model driven by disturbances to the household production can account for some features of international cycles. A version of the model which considers shocks to...

This paper shows how particle filtering allows us to undertake likelihood-based inference in dynamic macroeconomic models. The models can be nonlinear and/or non-normal. We describe how to use the output from the particle filter to estimate the structural parameters of the model, those...

After a brief review of classical, Keynesian, New Classical and New Keynesian theories of macroeconomic policy, we assess whether New Keynesian Economics captures the quintessential features stressed by JM Keynes. Particular attention is paid to Keynesian features omitted in New Keynesian...

This paper shows that fiscal policy, when used for stabilization purposes, can have a positive effect on the economy's growth, on human capital accumulation, and on welfare, along the transition path. We introduce symmetric productivity shocks into a model in which productivity is augmented...

This paper presents new evidence on the monetary transmission mechanism based on the effects that unexpected monetary policy shocks exert on the activity of 21 manufacturing industries in 5 OECD countries (France, Germany, Italy, UK and USA). The goal is twofold. First, documenting the...