In this paper we use unit roots/cointegration analysis and time-varying parameters procedures to test for a common growth path in the ex-communist block, both pre- and post-reform. We test whether there has been convergence within the block and between the block as a group and the West....

Evidence of stock return predictability by financial ratios is still controversial as documented by inconsistent results for in-sample and out-of-sample regressions as well as substantial parameter instability. This paper shows that these seemingly incompatible results can be reconciled if the...

It is widely known that significant in-sample evidence of predictability does not guarantee significant out-of-sample predictability. This is often interpreted as an indication that in-sample evidence is likely to be spurious and should be discounted. In this Paper we question this conventional...

In this Paper it is argued that, if two products or geographic areas belong in the same market, their relative price must be stationary. Hence stationarity tests like the ADF and the KPSS can be helpful in delineating the relevant market for Antitrust purposes, particularly for abuses of...

We analyze peer e¤ects in sleeping behavior using a representative sample of U.S. teenagers from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health. The sampling design of the survey causes the conventional 2SLS estimator to be inconsistent. We extend the NLS estimator in Wang and Lee...

This paper investigates secular changes in the distribution of personal expen-diture in Italy over the period 1881-1961. To do so, the authors constructed a new dataset, the Italian Household Budgets Database (IHBD), consisting of 4,370 family-level budgets. Methodologically, this paper improves...

This paper studies business cycle interdependence among the industrialized countries since 1958. Using the spillover index methodology recently proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009) and based on the generalized VAR framework, I develop an alternative measure of comovement of macroeconomic...

Modern neo-Keynesian, new classical, and real business cycle models typically differ in the degree to which they incorporate long-run or short-run neutrality propositions. Despite their importance, little firm international evidence on the validity of these neutrality hypotheses is available to...

We examine a two country model of the EU and the US. Each has a small sector of the labour and product markets in which there is wage/price rigidity, but otherwise enjoys flexible wages and prices with a one quarter information lag. Using a VAR to represent the data, we find the model as a whole...

Using Monte Carlo experiments, we examine the performance of indirect inference tests of DSGE models in small samples, using various models in widespread use. We compare these with tests based on direct inference (using the Likelihood Ratio). We find that both tests have power so that a...