Lack of access to finance is often cited as a key reason for why poor people remain poor. This Paper uses data on the Indian rural branch expansion programme to provide empirical evidence on this issue. Between 1977 and 1990, the Indian central bank mandated that a commercial bank could open a...

This paper investigates the role of violent civil conflicts during the process of democratization for the quality of emerging democracies, and in particular, the protection of civil (political and economic) liberties. A simple theory in which different groups may engage in violent conflict in...

This Paper investigates whether the industrial relations climate in Indian states has affected the pattern of manufacturing growth in the period 1958-92. We show that pro-worker amendments to the Industrial Disputes Act are associated with lowered investment, employment, productivity and output...

This Paper examines the changing relationships between the G7 countries through VAR models for the quarterly growth rates, estimated both over sub-periods and using a rolling data window. Six trivariate models are estimated, all of which include the US and a European (E15) aggregate. In relative...

We propose a comprehensive methodology to characterize the business cycle comovements across European economies and some industrialized countries, always trying to ‘let the data speak’. Out of this framework, we propose a novel method to show that there is no ‘Euro economy’ that acts as...

In this Paper, I analyse the pros and cons of implementing structural reforms of the labour market in booms versus recessions, in light of considerations of social efficiency, political viability, and macroeconomic fine-tuning. While the optimal timing of a reform depends on the relative...

This 2003 Institute for Fiscal Studies Lecture addresses two sets of issues relevant to current and prospective future E(M)U members: the consequences of the Stability and Growth Pact for fiscal-financial sustainability and macroeconomic stability, and some risks associated with operational...

Monetary policy is sometimes formulated in terms of a target level of inflation, a fixed time horizon and a constant interest rate that is anticipated to achieve the target at the specified horizon. These requirements lead to constant interest rate (CIR) instrument rules. Using the standard New...

This paper examines the optimal reaction of fiscal policy to permanent and transitory shocks to output in a model of tax and public consumption smoothing. The model predicts that optimal reaction of public expenditures and deficits to transitory shocks should be countercyclical, while optimal...

The paper considers the implications for the EU accession candidates of Central and Eastern Europe of the fiscal-financial constraints imposed by the Stability and Growth Pact and the Maastricht Treaty. Our findings apply also to those current EU members whose initial conditions (e.g....