wondering how to choose the sample for estimating forecasting models. When we forecast inflation in 2014, for example, should we … applied to forecasting US real output growth and inflation, the proposed method tends to improve upon conventional methods. …

Inflation targeting central banks will be hampered without good models to assist them to be forward-looking. Many … current inflation models fail to forecast turning points adequately, because they miss key underlying long-run influences. The … world is on the cusp of a dramatic turning point in inflation. If inflation falls rapidly, such models can underestimate the …

Inflation is a far from homogeneous phenomenon, a fact often neglected in modelling consumer price inflation. This … study, the first of its kind for an emerging market country, investigates gains to inflation forecast accuracy by …

Models for the twelve-month-ahead US rate of inflation, measured by the chain weighted consumer expenditure deflator … prices; introducing non-linearities to proxy state dependence in the inflation process; and replacing the information …

The Paper presents a model in which the exogenous money supply causes changes in the inflation rate and the output … growth rate. While inflation and growth rate changes occur simultaneously, the inflation acts as a tax on the return to human … the income velocity of money that can break the otherwise stable relation between money, inflation, and output growth …

unemployment-inflation tradeoff might indicate not something to be exploited but instead only policy-makers' correctly …

situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation …

Increases in oil prices have been held responsible for recessions, periods of excessive inflation, reduced productivity …

inflation. This study focuses on the modern OPEC period since 1973. The results differ along a number of dimensions from the … sustained reduction in economic growth for a year. They also suggest a spike in CPI inflation three quarters after the exogenous … oil supply shock rather than a sustained increase in inflation, as is sometimes conjectured. Finally, the results of this …

We study the inflation uncertainty reported by individual forecasters in the Survey of Professional Forecasters 1969 … asset pricing. We find that inflation uncertainty fluctuates over time in a way that traditional time series models fail to … capture. Instead, uncertainty is highly correlated with the level of inflation, in particular with recent positive inflation …