Copulas offer financial risk managers a powerful tool to model the dependence between the different elements of a portfolio and are preferable to the traditional, correlation-based approach. In this paper we show the importance of selecting an accurate copula for risk management. We extend...

We quantify the sources of risk in currency returns as a first step toward understanding the returns reported for the carry trade. To do this, we develop and estimate an empirical model of exchange rate dynamics using daily data for four currencies relative to the US dollar: the Australian...

We propose regression based estimators for beta representations of dynamic asset pricing models with an affine pricing kernel specification. We allow for state variables that are cross sectional pricing factors, forecasting variables for the price of risk, and factors that are both. The...

This review paper articulates the relationship between prediction market data and event studies, with a special focus on applications in political economy. Event studies have been used to address a variety of political economy questions from the economic effects of party control of government to...

We analyse the Generalised Hyperbolic distribution adequacy to model kurtosis and asymmetries in multivariate conditionally heteroskedastic dynamic regression models. We standardise this distribution, obtain analytical expressions for the log-likelihood score, and explain how to evaluate the...

We study the effects of a conditional cash transfers program on school enrollment and performance in Mexico. We provide a theoretical framework for analyzing the dynamic educational process including the endogeneity and uncertainty of performance at school (passing grades) and the effect of a...

We study the implications of ownership and its induced incentives on firm performance in the ‘New Economy’. Instead of traditional performance we use firm survival on the stock market as the performance indicator. Using a unique data set of all 341 firms listed on the Neuer Markt, the German...

We develop and estimate a model of dynamic interactions where commitment is limited and contracts are incomplete to explain the patterns of income and consumption growth in village economies of less developed countries. Households can insure through both formal contracts and informal agreements,...

We evaluate the effect of active labour market programs on the duration of unemployment in a reward or punish system. In Switzerland, unemployment benefits are conditional upon program attendance after 7 months of unemployment duration. In the evaluation we allow for selectivity affecting the...

The theoretical literature on trade and growth suggests that comparative advantage is endogenous and evolves over time. However, most of the empirical analysis of international trade flows is essentially static in nature. This paper proposes an empirical model of the dynamics of international...