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commodity-exporting countries. We show that the introduction of hedging instruments such as futures and options enhances …This paper uses a dynamic optimization model to estimate the welfare gains of hedging against commodity price risk for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008577805
The UK pound left the ERM on 16 September 1992 after a period of turbulence. UK monetary policy soon shifted to lower short interest rates and an inflation target was announced. This paper uses daily option prices to estimate how the market’s probability distribution of the future Deutsche...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791268
While most empirical analysis of prediction markets treats prices of binary options as predictions of the probability …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136573
futures contracts. Their hedging demand is met by financial intermediaries who act as speculators, but are constrained in risk … 1980-2006, we show that producers’ hedging demand - proxied by their default risk - forecasts spot prices, futures prices …-taking. Increases (decreases) in producers’ hedging demand (the risk-bearing capacity of speculators) increase the costs of hedging …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005016244
This paper is a selective survey of new or recent methods to extract information about market expectations from asset prices for monetary policy purposes. Traditionally, interest rates and forward exchange rates have been used to extract expected means of future interest rates, exchange rates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504605
This paper shows that the informativeness principle does not automatically extend to settings with limited liability. Even if a signal is informative about effort, it may have no value for contracting. An agent with limited liability is paid zero for certain output realizations. Thus, even if...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083536
The informativeness principle demonstrates qualitative benefits to increasing signal precision. However, it is difficult to quantify these benefits -- and compare them against the costs of precision -- since we typically cannot solve for the optimal contract and analyze how it changes with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083624
including global equities, global bonds, commodities, US Treasuries, credit, and options. This predictability rejects a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083673
. Options whose lives span political events tend to be more expensive. Such options provide valuable protection against the risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084633
empirically show that indeed portfolios of long Treasuries and short traded put options ("pseudo bonds") closely match the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011145468