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Existing theories of pre-emptive war typically predict that the leading country may choose to launch a war on a … was Japan who launched a war against the West in 1941, not the West that pre-emptively attacked Japan. Similarly, many … have argued that trade makes war less likely, yet World War I erupted at a time of unprecedented globalization. This paper …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084262
answer is less. Three centuries of history show unambiguously that economic isolation caused by war or autarkic policy has …Poor countries are more volatile than rich countries, and we know this volatility impedes their growth. We also know … that commodity price volatility is a key source of those shocks. This paper explores commodity and manufactures prices over …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005656266
Deliberately or not, by providing its stance on the prospects of the economy, rationalizing past decisions or announcing future actions, central banks influence financial markets' expectations of its future policy. In bad times, monetary policy communication inducing an upward revision of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009147402
resulting volatility can induce risk-averse transactors who face transaction costs to desert these markets altogether. Thus … thinness and the consequent price volatility may become joint self-perpetuating features of an equity market, whatever the … volatility of asset fundamentals. If, however, appropriate incentive schemes are adopted to encourage entry of additional …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662005
to an end. This paper offers evidence that the decrease in output volatility still remains in force despite the GR and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083709
To generate big responses of unemployment to productivity changes, researchers have reconfigured matching models in various ways: by elevating the utility of leisure, by making wages sticky, by assuming alternating-offer wage bargaining, by introducing costly acquisition of credit, or by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011201357
velocity volatility at both business cycle and long run frequencies. With filtered velocity turning negative, starting during …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008496458
Since the 2008 global financial crisis, and after decades of relative neglect, the importance of the financial system and its episodic crises as drivers of macroeconomic outcomes has attracted fresh scrutiny from academics, policy makers, and practitioners. Theoretical advances are following a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011213304
We propose two metrics for asset pricing models and apply them to representative agent models with recursive preferences, habits, and jumps. The metrics describe the pricing kernel’s dispersion (the entropy of the title) and dynamics (time dependence, a measure of how entropy varies over...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009225955
Why were people so unprepared for the global financial crisis, the European debt crisis, and the Fukushima nuclear accident? To address this question, we study a model in which agents make state-contingent plans - think about actions in different contingencies - subject to the constraint that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009351517