We provide methods for forecasting variables and predicting turning points in panel Bayesian VARs. We specify a flexible model that accounts for both interdependencies in the cross section and time variations in the parameters. Posterior distributions for the parameters are obtained for...

We use available methods for testing macro models to evaluate a model of China over the period from Deng Xiaoping's reforms up until the crisis period. Bayesian ranking methods are heavily influenced by controversial priors on the degree of price/wage rigidity. When the overall models are tested...

We use available methods for testing macro models to evaluate a model of China over the period from Deng Xiaoping's reforms up until the crisis period. Bayesian ranking methods are heavily influenced by controversial priors on the degree of price/wage rigidity. When the overall models are tested...

We estimate the approximate nonlinear solution of a small DSGE model on euro area data, using the conditional particle filter to compute the model likelihood. Our results are consistent with previous findings, based on simulated data, suggesting that this approach delivers sharper inference...

This Paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure that allows for the possibility of new breaks over the forecast horizon, taking account of the size and duration of past breaks (if...

Does after-school care provision promote mothers’ employment and balance the allocation of paid work among parents of schoolchildren? We address this question by exploiting variation in cantonal (state) regulations of after-school care provision in Switzerland. To establish exogeneity of...

French children start public school either the year they turn two or the year they turn three. We evaluate the impact of this unique schooling policy on maternal labour supply. Using a Regression-discontinuity design, we show that early school availability has a significant employment effect on...

We consider the role of capital mobility and international taxation in explaining the observed diversity in long-term income growth rates. Under perfect capital mobility, international differences in taxes will not matter for total growth differentials. Policy differences have a role to play in...

We semiparametrically estimate the impact of the Mexican conditional cash transfer program Oportunidades on the time mothers and older sisters spend taking care of children aged under 3, using the randomization of the program placement and the methodology in Lewbel (2000). Results support the...

We provide an exploratory quantitive analysis of the role of capital mobility and international taxation in explaining the observed cross-country diversity in the long-run rates of growth of per capita and total incomes as well as the population growth rates. Corroborative evidence is found for...