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We develop a method that allows one to compute incomplete-market equilibria routinely for Markovian equilibria (when they exist). The main difficulty to be overcome arises from the set of state variables. There are, of course, exogenous state variables driving the economy but, in an incomplete...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124234
This Paper explores the hypothesis that the dollarization of liabilities in emerging market economies is the result of a lack of monetary credibility. I present a model in which firms choose the currency composition of their debts so as to minimize their probability of default. Decreasing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666604
This paper examines the co-movement among stock market prices and exchange rates within a three-country Centre-Periphery dynamic equilibrium model in which agents in the Centre country face portfolio constraints. In our model, international transmission occurs through the terms of trade, through...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504325
The empirical performance of macroeconomic exchange rate models is more than disappointing. This dismal result is also reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naïve random walk forecasts. The root for this deficient...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504428
In this paper we document new results regarding the forward premium puzzle. The often found negative correlation between the expected currency depreciation and interest rate differential is, contrary to popular belief, not a pervasive phenomenon. It is confined to developed economies, and here...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504460
We test for the pricing of exchange rate and foreign inflation risk in equities. Our tests are motivated by the empirical implications of the models of Solnik (1974b) as revised by Sercu (1980), Grauer, Litzenberger, and Stehle (1976), and Adler and Dumas (1983). Both exchange rate and foreign...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504518
Do exchange rates react to exogenous capital movements? We explore this issue based on the redefinition of the MSCI international equity indices announced on 10 December 2000 and implemented in two steps on 30 November 2001 and 31 May 2002. The index changes implied major changes in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497725
We provide a broad empirical investigation of momentum strategies in the foreign exchange market. We find a significant cross-sectional spread in excess returns of up to 10% p.a. between past winner and loser currencies. This spread in excess returns is not explained by traditional risk factors,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083372
We quantify the sources of risk in currency returns as a first step toward understanding the returns reported for the carry trade. To do this, we develop and estimate an empirical model of exchange rate dynamics using daily data for four currencies relative to the US dollar: the Australian...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083487
Any security’s expected return can be decomposed into its “carry” and its expected price appreciation, where carry is a model-free characteristic that can be observed in advance. While carry has been studied almost exclusively for currencies, we find that carry predicts returns both in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083673