We extend the standard approach to Bayesian forecast combination by forming the weights for the model averaged forecast from the predictive likelihood rather than the standard marginal likelihood. The use of predictive measures of fit offers greater protection against in-sample overfitting and...

We identify the determinants of capital movements in an ‘augmented-Solow’ model where capital mobility is restricted to a subset of capital assets. We then test the prediction of the neoclassical model and find that it is consistent with the evidence on net capital flows in a cross-section...

The paper analyses global trends in foreign direct investment (FDI) and the interlinkages between FDI, trade and competitiveness in host developing countries. The rapid rate of growth and the recent changes in the global patterns of FDI are attributed to both macroeconomic and microeconomic...

The design of institutions is shaped by a fundamental trade-off. On the one hand, relationships and heterogeneity push governance down. On the other, the scale and scope benefits of market integration push governance up. A corner solution is rarely optimal. An intermediate outcome, a world...

We study how the city system is affected by the possibility for the members of the same cultural diaspora to interact across different cities. In so doing, we propose a simple two-city model with two mobile cultural groups. A localized externality fosters the productivity of individuals when...

Trade in business services has been attracting attention from academic researchers, policy makers, and business journalists. While there are many anecdotes, there has been little in the way of formal theory applied to this issue. In this paper, we adapt a general model of fragmentation of...