then used to characterize the evolution of expectations and uncertainty, the propagation of the shocks, the contribution of …, I show how the methods can be used to capture the link between uncertainty and the state of the economy. Finally, I …, welfare, and uncertainty. All results are derived analytically, do not require numerical integration, and are therefore …

their growth. Economic theory suggests uncertainty can cause firms to delay investments until uncertainty is resolved. We …Firms in many developing countries cite macroeconomic instability and political uncertainty as major constraints to … macroeconomic and political uncertainty. Demand for macroeconomic shock insurance was high; 36.7 percent of microentrepreneurs in …

between risk and uncertainty is implemented by applying the Gilboa-Schmeidler maxmin with multiple priors framework to lenders …, ultimate lenders and financial intermediaries. The model is used to investigate the impact of uncertainty about the likelihood … include: (i) An unanticipated increase in bailout uncertainty raises interest rates, the volume of defaults in both the real …

This paper deals with the estimation of the risk-return trade-off. We use a MIDAS model for the conditional variance … and allow for possible switches in the risk-return relation through a Markov-switching specification. We find strong … evidence for regime changes in the risk-return relation. This finding is robust to a large range of specifications. In the …

This paper introduces regime switching parameters in the Mixed-Frequency VAR model. We first discuss estimation and …

of any order can be reduced to solving a system of quadratic equations. We propose using the theory of Grobner bases in …

influence of tax-benefit reforms on unemployment using an equation that attaches a moderately strong prior belief to the theory. …