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There is a long tradition of using oil prices to forecast U.S. real GDP. It has been suggested that the predictive relationship between the price of oil and one-quarter ahead U.S. real GDP is nonlinear in that (1) oil price increases matter only to the extent that they exceed the maximum oil...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083435
Although oil price shocks have long been viewed as one of the leading candidates for explaining U.S. recessions, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which oil price shocks explain recessions. We provide the first formal analysis of this question with special attention to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083465
Originally propounded by the 16th-century scholars of the University of Salamanca, the concept of purchasing power parity (PPP) was revived in the interwar period in the context of the debate concerning the appropriate level at which to re-establish international exchange rate parities. Broadly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662378
We provide empirical evidence that deviations from the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) condition display significant nonlinearities, consistent with theories based on transactions costs or limits to speculation. This evidence suggests that the forward bias documented in the literature may...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666605
This paper studies the joint dynamics of US output and unemployment rates in a nonlinear VAR model. The nonlinearity is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791372
We examine the forecasting performance of a range of time-series models of the daily US effective federal funds (FF) rate recently proposed in the literature. We find that: (i) most of the models and predictor variables considered produce satisfactory one-day-ahead forecasts of the FF rate; (ii)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124452
It is customary to suggest that the asymmetry in the transmission of oil price shocks to real output is well established. Much of the empirical work cited as being in support of asymmetries, however, has not directly tested the hypothesis of an asymmetric transmission of oil price innovations....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008784725
link the population of a country to a host of economic and social phenomena. Using both graphical and statistical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498014
There has been little empirical work evaluating the sensitivity of fertility to financial incentives at the household level. We put forward an identification strategy that relies on the fact that variation of wages induces variation in benefits and tax credits among 'comparable' households. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666789
of future population size. The essay begins with a summary of welfare economic theory as it pertains to situations where … population size is not subject to choice, and notes that a symmetry (or anonymity) axiom on social welfare functions has almost … invariably been invoked in the theory. It then summarizes optimum population theory and emphasizes that the existing theory …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666921