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Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidenc: In-Sample Forecasts, Out-of-Sample Forecasts, and Parameter Instability

Lettau, Martin; van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005

Evidence of stock return predictability by financial ratios is still controversial as documented by inconsistent results for in-sample and out-of-sample regressions as well as substantial parameter instability. This paper shows that these seemingly incompatible results can be reconciled if the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661523

In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?

Inoue, Atsushi; Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2002

It is widely known that significant in-sample evidence of predictability does not guarantee significant out-of-sample predictability. This is often interpreted as an indication that in-sample evidence is likely to be spurious and should be discounted. In this Paper we question this conventional...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124323

Convergence in Output in Transition Economies: Central and Eastern Europe, 1970-1995

Estrin, Saul; Urga, Giovanni - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1997

In this paper we use unit roots/cointegration analysis and time-varying parameters procedures to test for a common growth path in the ex-communist block, both pre- and post-reform. We test whether there has been convergence within the block and between the block as a group and the West....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123521

Endogeneity of Currency Areas and Trade Blocs: Evidence from the Inter-war Period

Ritschl, Albrecht; Wolf, Nikolaus - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2003

members was already high. In OLS estimation, this would cause endogeneity bias. The present Paper employs both fixed …-effects and binary choice methods to trace endogeneity in the formation of historical currency arrangements. Studying the … formation of currency blocs in the 1930s, we find strong evidence of endogeneity. We work with country-group fixed effects and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504501

The Economic Consequences of Social Network Structure

Jackson, Matthew O.; Rogers, Brian; Zenou, Yves - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2015

discuss the challenges of accounting for the endogeneity of networks in assessing the relationship between the patterns of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011165640

Monetary policy responses to oil price fluctuations

Bodenstein, Martin; Guerrieri, Luca; Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2012

The recent volatility in global commodity prices and in the price of oil, in particular, has created renewed interest in the question of how monetary policy makers should respond to oil price fluctuations. In this paper, we discuss why this question is ill-posed and has no general answer. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083477

Giffen’s Good: A case of mistaken identification

Brunt, Liam - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013

Giffen reported that, in the late nineteenth century, English wheat consumption rose when its price increased – the first recorded “Giffen good”. Using Giffen’s data, I explain how he reached his conclusion. I then show that his analysis was faulty: price elasticity of demand appears...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084480

Analyzing female labor supply -- Evidence from a Dutch tax reform

Bosch, Nicole; van der Klaauw, Bas - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009

Among OECD countries, the Netherlands has average female labor force participation, but by far the highest rate of part-time work. This paper investigates the extent to which married women respond to financial incentives. We exploit the exogenous variation caused by a substantial Dutch tax...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005034759

International Trade and Child Labour: Cross-Country Evidence

Edmonds, Eric V; Pavcnik, Nina - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004

for the endogeneity of trade and for cross-country income differences, the openness elasticity of child labour at cross …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067495

An Econometric Analysis of the Mental-Health Effects of Major Events in the Life of Elderly Individuals

Lindeboom, Maarten; Portrait, France; den Berg, Gerard J van - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2001

Major events in the life of an elderly individual, such as retirement, a significant decrease in income, death of the spouse, disability, and a move to a nursing home, may affect the mental health status of the individual. For example, the individual may enter a prolonged depression. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666455