situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation …

pronounced increase of aggregate US producer price inflation. …

inflation and growth. A genuine real-time data set for the euro area is used, including vintages of several alternative gap … clearly to a lack of any usefulness of real-time output gap estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one …

announcing a quantified inflation objective, other forms of communication, or by publishing central banks’ inflation and output … (economic) transparency, and given our findings that disagreement among inflation expectations in the general public is not …

indicator and forecasting properties of the real interest rate gap for inflation, both in the model and in the data. Our results … suggest that the real interest rate gap has value as an inflation indicator, supporting the ‘neo-Wicksellian framework …

A stable predictive relationship between inflation and the output gap, often referred to as a Phillips curve, provides … univariate and multivariate estimates of the output gap for predicting inflation. Many of the ex post output gap measures we … examine appear to be quite useful for predicting inflation. However, forecasts using real-time estimates of the same measures …

Models for the twelve-month-ahead US rate of inflation, measured by the chain weighted consumer expenditure deflator … prices; introducing non-linearities to proxy state dependence in the inflation process; and replacing the information …

This paper models Chinese inflation using an output gap Phillips curve. Inflation modelling for the world’s sixth … curve for China and show that the output gap, the exchange rate, and inflation expectations play important roles in … explaining inflation. We adjust for structural change in the economy where possible and estimate regressions for rolling sample …