A model of profits switches between four regimes with fixed probabilities; the rationally expected profits stream implies the stock market value. This efficient market model is not rejected by UK post-war time-series behaviour of either profits or the FTSE index.

Existing literature continues to be unable to offer a convincing explanation for the volatility of the stochastic discount factor in real world data. Our work provides such an explanation. We do not rely on frictions, market incompleteness or transactions costs of any kind. Instead, we modify a...

In a capitalist economy prices serve to equilibrate supply and demand for goods and services, continually changing to reallocate resources to their most efficient uses. Secondary stock market prices, however, often viewed as the most 'informationally efficient' prices in the economy, have no...

In 1998 Hungary embarked on a course of comprehensive pension reform. The reforms are likely to change the distribution of incomes of future generations. The purpose of this paper is two-fold. From a policy point of view, we analyse poverty and income inequality among pensioners in Hungary...

Copulas offer financial risk managers a powerful tool to model the dependence between the different elements of a portfolio and are preferable to the traditional, correlation-based approach. In this paper we show the importance of selecting an accurate copula for risk management. We extend...

The view that the stock market is myopic is commonly expressed in the financial press. However, the existing econometric evidence does not support this view. In this paper, we report econometric evidence suggesting that the market attaches too high a weight to current dividends relative to...

It is widely thought that neither the foreign exchange markets nor equity markets are efficient, in the sense that tests of the unbiasedness hypothesis and of the present value relationship, respectively, typically lead to rejection. Interest has therefore turned to whether a risk premium...

This paper applies recent cointegration techniques to analyse whether the forward market for the peseta/US dollar is efficient in both the one-month and the three-month segments of the market. Under the assumption of rationality, the premiums are small and they suggest a possible linear...

Evaluation of forecast optimality in economics and finance has almost exclusively been conducted under the assumption of mean squared error loss. Under this loss function optimal forecasts should be unbiased and forecast errors serially uncorrelated at the single-period horizon with increasing...

This note re-examines the results of tests of the hypothesis that the forward exchange rate is an unbiased and efficient predictor of the future spot exchange rate. As an alternative hypothesis we posit the existence of a time-varying risk premium. We show that it is possible to place a...