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-specific fiscal shocks. Differences in the cyclicality of fiscal revenues affect the option value of borrowing and resulting default …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084395
Philip II of Spain accumulated debts equivalent to 60% of GDP. He also failed to honor them four times. We ask what allowed the sovereign to borrow much while defaulting often. Earlier work emphasized either banker irrationality or the importance of sanctions. Using new archival data, we show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005792053
Contingent sovereign debt has the potential to create important welfare gains--but actual issuance is rare. Using hand-collected archival data, we examine the first known case of large-scale issuance of contingent sovereign debt in history. Philip II of Spain entered into hundreds of contracts...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009207526
There is a large and growing literature that studies the effects of weak enforcement institutions on economic performance. This literature has focused almost exclusively on primary markets, in which assets are issued and traded to improve the allocation of investment and consumption. The general...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791368
In an environment characterized by weak contractual enforcement, sovereign lenders can enhance the likelihood of repayment by making their claims more difficult to restructure. We show within a simple model how competition for repayment between lenders may result in sovereign debt that is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504677
In 2007, countries in the euro periphery were enjoying stable growth, low deficits, and low spreads. Then the Financial crisis erupted and pushed them into deep recessions, raising their deficits and debt levels. By 2010, they were facing severe debt problems. Spreads increased and,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084507
We investigate the pricing of ‘Brady’ bonds that are issued by the governments of five developing countries as part of debt and debt service reduction agreements. We first present a measure of credit quality that takes account of the individual features of each bond and is comparable across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114476
We develop a sovereign debt model with official and private creditors where default risk depends on both the level and … presence of long-term debt overhang, the availability of official funds increases the probability of default on existing debt …, although default does not trigger exclusion from private credit markets. These findings help shed light on joint default and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083544
one-period debt and can renege on its obligations by suffering a stochastic default cost. When faced with a credible … default threat, creditors can make a take-it-or-leave-it debt haircut offer to the sovereign. The risk of renegotiation is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011276380
How does sovereign debt emerge and become sustainable? This paper provides a new answer to this unsolved puzzle. Focusing on the early 19th century, we argue that intermediaries' market power served to overcome information asymmetries and sustained the development of sovereign debt. Relying on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136631