This paper assesses how structural transformation is affected by sectoral differences in labor-augmenting technological progress, capital intensity, and substitutability between capital and labor. We estimate CES production functions for agriculture, manufacturing, and services on postwar US...

Over recent years `opportunity cost' (OC) models of growth have been constructed which suggest that firms take advantage of the possibility of intertemporal subsitution in order to engage in productivity-improving activities during recessions. This paper tests whether this argument is correct,...

We develop a simple growth model with imperfect competition in which demand conditions can affect the dynamics of capital accumulation, hindering or enhancing growth. In our model the elasticity of the demand schedule faced by a typical firm depends on the aggregate savings rate. The latter...

What role does labour play in firms’ market value? We explore this question using a production-based asset-pricing model with frictions in the adjustment of both capital and labor. We posit that hiring of labour is akin to investment in capital and that the two interact, with the interaction...

We construct an endogenous growth model of directed technical change with automation (the introduction of machines which replace low-skill labor and complement high-skill labor) and horizontal innovation (the introduction of new products, which increases demand for both types of labor). Such an...

Using synthetic data generated by a prototypical stochastic growth model, we explore the quantitative extent of measurement error of the Solow residual (Solow 1957) as a measure of total factor productivity (TFP) growth when the capital stock is measured with error and when capacity utilization...

In this paper we assess the possibility of producing unbiased forecasts for fiscal variables in the euro area by comparing a set of procedures that rely on different information sets and econometric techniques. In particular, we consider ARMA models, VARs, small scale semi-structural models at...

This Paper proposes a method to conduct inference in panel VAR models with cross-unit interdependencies and time variations in the coefficients. The set-up used is Bayesian, and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to estimate the posterior distribution of the features of interest....

A tradition from Knight (1921) argues that more risk tolerant individuals are more likely to become entrepreneurs, but perform worse. We test these predictions with two risk tolerance proxies: stock market participation and personal leverage. Using investment data for 400,000 individuals, we...

This Paper estimates the effects of technology shocks in VAR models of the United States, Japan and Germany, identified imposing restrictions on the sign of impulse responses. These restrictions are motivated with priors on the parameters of a class of DSGE models with both real and nominal...