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We document that trust in public institutions--and particularly trust in banks, business and government--has declined over recent years. U.S. time series evidence suggests that this partly reflects the pro-cyclical nature of trust in institutions. Cross-country comparisons reveal a clear legacy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008925712
This paper presents an innovative approach to extracting factors which are shown to predict the VIX, the S&P 500 Realized Volatility and the Variance Risk Premium. The approach is innovative along two different dimensions, namely: (1) we extract factors from panels of filtered volatilities - in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084614
sample forecasting performance. We consider a large variety of models and evaluation criteria, using real time data and a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005656192
This paper estimates and tests a new Keynesian small open economy model in the tradition of Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (2005) and Smets and Wouters (2003) using Bayesian estimation techniques on Swedish data. To account for the switch to an inflation targeting regime in 1993 we allow for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661438
We analyse the relative performance of the IMF, OECD and EC in forecasting the government deficit, as a ratio to DGP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661466
The term now-casting is a contraction for now and forecasting and has been used for a long-time in meteorology and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084671
Recent reforms of the Italian social security system (Amato-Dini reforms) aimed at reversing the upward trend in Government pension spending. The main provisions of these reforms are: i) the adoption of a (unfunded) defined contribution system as a basis for computing pensions benefits, ii) a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661948
latter's specification in differences. In this paper we examine the forecasting performance of the FECM by means of an … generally offers a higher forecasting precision and in general marks a very useful step forward for forecasting with large …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468646
forecasting structure to time series models and their forward-looking dynamics, which consists of expected values of future … their forecasting ability. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084549
article provides a critical review of the recent literature on exchange rate forecasting and illustrates the new methodologies …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084576