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The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks

Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007

Large fluctuations in energy prices have been a distinguishing characteristic of the U.S. economy since the 1970s. Turmoil in the Middle East, rising energy prices in the U.S. and evidence of global warming recently have reignited interest in the link between energy prices and economic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504581

The Effect of Disability on Labour Market Outcomes in Germany: Evidence from Matching

Lechner, Michael; Vazquez-Alvarez, Rosalia - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004

If labour market policies aimed at people with disabilities are effective, we should observe no significant difference in labour market outcomes between disabled and non-disabled individuals. This Paper examines the impact of disability status on labour market outcomes using matching methods...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498136

Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market

Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2006

Using a newly developed measure of global real economic activity, a structural decomposition of the real price of crude oil in four components is proposed: oil supply shocks driven by political events in OPEC countries; other oil supply shocks; aggregate shocks to the demand for industrial...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662193

Inequality and Institutions

Chong, Alberto; Gradstein, Mark - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004

institutional measures. We establish the double causality between institutional strength and a more equal distribution of income and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124033

The `Walters' Critique of the EMS: A Case of Inconsistent Expectations

Miller, Marcus; Sutherland, Alan - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1990

Alan Walters has suggested that the European Monetary System will prove dynamically unstable when capital controls are removed. The argument is analysed within a model that includes overlapping contracts. It is found that the short-run effects predicted by Walters only arise when the credibility...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504500

Robust Learning Stability with Operational Monetary Policy Rules

Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008

We consider "robust stability" of a rational expectations equilibrium, which we define as stability under discounted … exhibit robust stability. We consider a variety of interest-rate rules, including instrument rules, optimal reaction functions … Honkapohja (2003, 2006) deliver robust learning stability. In contrast, many proposed alternatives become unstable under learning …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498187

UK Phillips Curves and Monetary Policy

Haldane, Andrew; Quah, Danny - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1999

This paper documents some stylized facts on evolving UK Phillips curves, and shows how these differ from their US versions. We interpret UK Phillips curve dynamics in a positive theory of monetary policy - how policy-maker attitudes on the Phillips curve have evolved since the 1950s - rather...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067633