responses to the inflation triggered by oil price shocks are an important source of aggregate fluctuations in the U.S. economy … VAR models, the Federal Reserve was not responding to the inflation triggered by oil price shocks, as commonly presumed …. We show that there is no evidence of systematic monetary policy responses to oil price shocks after 1987 and that this …

One of the central questions in recent macroeconomic history is to what extent monetary policy as opposed to oil price … related to the oil market played a major role in causing both the major oil price increases of the 1970s and stagflation in … many economies. A competing view exemplified by Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997) is that the oil price shocks of the …

U.S. retail food price increases in recent years may seem large in nominal terms, but after adjusting for inflation … in the real price of oil. That link, however, appears largely driven by common macroeconomic determinants of the prices … of oil and agricultural commodities rather than the pass-through from higher oil prices. We show that there is no …

This paper studies the effects of demand and supply shocks in the global crude oil market on several measures of … countries’ external balance, including the oil trade balance, the non-oil trade balance, the current account and changes in net … States, the Euro area and Japan, we consider a number of regional aggregates including oil-exporting economies and middle …

CPI inflation. It is shown that policies aimed at dealing with higher oil prices must take careful account of the origins … oil in four components is proposed: oil supply shocks driven by political events in OPEC countries; other oil supply … shocks; aggregate shocks to the demand for industrial commodities; and demand shocks that are specific to the crude oil …

increasingly used to identify demand and supply shocks in the market for crude oil. We demonstrate that sign restrictions alone are … insufficient to infer the responses of the real price of oil to such shocks. Moreover, the conventional assumption that all … admissible models are equally likely is routinely violated in oil market models, calling into question the use of median …