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Illusive Persistence in German Unemployment

Tschernig, Rolf J.V.; Zimmermann, Klaus F - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1992

persistence. This view is questioned in the paper using German data on unemployment. A new class of time-series models, the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666959

Back to the Future: the Growth Prospects of Transition Economies Reconsidered

Campos, Nauro F - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2000

How many years will the average transition economy need to reach the income level of the average OECD country? The favoured methodology in use to answer such questions is referred to as the BLR approach, because it uses specifications from Barro, and Levine and Renelt. The literature has so far...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498184

Who is Afraid of Political Instability?

Campos, Nauro F - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2000

the long run and ignoring institutional factors, the Sub-Saharan Africa group plays the determining role in steering this …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504467

Obsolescence

Gylfason, Thorvaldur; Zoega, Gylfi - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2001

Does it always pay to install high-quality capital? Or could it possibly be more profitable to make investments that do not last too long? In this Paper we ponder the optimal rate of depreciation of physical capital, first in the Solow model and then in a model of endogenous growth with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067649

Two to Tangle: Financial Development, Political Instability and Economic Growth in Argentina (1896-2000)

Campos, Nauro F; Karanasos, Menelaos; Tan, Bin - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008

This paper investigates the effects of financial development and political instability on economic growth in a power-ARCH framework with data for Argentina from 1896 to 2000. Our findings suggest that (i) informal or unanticipated political instability (e.g., guerrilla warfare) has a direct...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114221

Growth, Volatility and Political Instability: Non-Linear Time-Series Evidence for Argentina, 1896-2000

Campos, Nauro F; Karanasos, Menelaos - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007

What is the relationship between economic growth and its volatility? Does political instability affect growth directly or indirectly, through volatility? This paper tries to answer such questions using a power-ARCH framework with annual time series data for Argentina from 1896 to 2000. We show...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005667076

Endogenous Growth and Stochastic Trends

Fatás, Antonio - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1996

This paper shows that there exists a strong positive correlation between long-term growth rates and the persistence of … output fluctuations in a cross section of countries. We argue that the traditional explanation of persistence, a real …, output fluctuations are persistent and the degree of persistence is an increasing function of long-term growth rates. Growth …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124049

Quantifying the Half-Life of Deviations from PPP: The Role of Economic Priors

Kilian, Lutz; Zha, Tao - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1999

The half-life of deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) plays a central role in the ongoing debate about the ability of macroeconomic models to account for the time series behaviour of the real exchange rate. The main contribution of this paper is a general framework in which alternative...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005792458

The failure to predict the Great Recession. The failure of academic economics? A view focusing on the role of credit

Rivas, Gadea; Dolores, Maria; Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2012

, the now infamous credit to GDP chart. We compare the conclusions reached in the literature after the crisis with the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084606

Slowdowns and Meltdowns: Post-war Growth Evidence from 74 Countries

Ben-David, Dan; Papell, David - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1995

Many countries, both industrialized and developing, appear to have experienced a slowdown in economic growth. We examine a large sample of countries and find that a majority exhibit a significant structural break in their post-war growth rates. In nearly all of these cases the break was followed...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498062