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Monetary Policy and Uncertainty about the Natural Unemployment Rate

Wieland, Volker - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2003

Inflation-targeting central banks have only imperfect knowledge about the effect of policy decisions on inflation. An important source of uncertainty is the relationship between inflation and unemployment. This Paper studies the optimal monetary policy in the presence of uncertainty about the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067479

Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on the Economic Value of Predictability

Abhyankar, Abhay; Sarno, Lucio; Valente, Giorgio - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004

A major puzzle in international finance is the inability of models based on monetary fundamentals to produce better out-of-sample forecasts of the nominal exchange rate than a naive random walk. While prior research has generally evaluated exchange rate forecasts using conventional statistical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666632

Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Diffusion Indexes in Short Samples with Structural Change

Banerjee, Anindya; Marcellino, Massimiliano; Masten, Igor - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008

We conduct a detailed simulation study of the forecasting performance of diffusion index-based methods in short samples with structural change. We consider several data generation processes, to mimic different types of structural change, and compare the relative forecasting performance of factor...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666861

Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in an Estimated Model with Labour Market Frictions

Sala, Luca; Söderström, Ulf; Trigari, Antonella - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008

We study the design of monetary policy in an estimated model with sticky prices, search and matching frictions, and staggered nominal wage bargaining. We find that the estimated natural rate of unemployment is consistent with the NBER description of the U.S. business cycle, and that the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005792050

The Empirical Importance of Precautionary Saving

Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier; Parker, Jonathan A - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2001

extant research on consumption insurance find that people face substantial risks that they do not fairly pool. In theory, the … changes in risk to fluctuations in aggregate consumption and (d) the significant impact of incomplete markets on aggregate …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504693

The Age-Wealth Profile and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis: A Cohort Analysis with a Time Series of Cross-Sections of Italian Households

Jappelli, Tullio - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1995

-cycle theory, i.e. the extent to which the elderly run down accumulated assets. Using the 1984-93 Italian Survey of Household …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123699

Inherited vs Self-Made Wealth: Theory & Evidence from a Rentier Society (Paris 1872-1937)

Piketty, Thomas; Postel-Vinay, Gilles; Rosenthal, Jean … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

This paper divides the population into two groups: the "inheritors" or "rentiers" (whose wealth is smaller than the capitalized value of their inherited wealth, i.e. who consumed more than their labor income during their lifetime); and the "savers" or "self-made men" (whose wealth is larger than...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009643507

Effects of Transitory Shocks to Aggregate Output on Consumption in Poor Countries

Brückner, Markus; Gradstein, Mark - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013

This paper provides instrumental variables estimates of the response of aggregate private consumption to transitory output shocks in poor countries. To identify exogenous, unanticipated, idiosyncratic and transitory variations in national output we use year-to-year variations in rainfall as an...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083244

Consumption Over the Life-Cycle

Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier; Parker, Jonathan A - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2000

risk aversion, we find that consumer behaviour changes strikingly over the life-cycle. Young consumers behave as buffer …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504201

Cash Holdings and Credit Risk

Acharya, Viral V; Davydenko, Sergei A.; Strebulaev, Ilya - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009

, suggesting that precautionary savings are central to understanding the effects of cash on credit risk. … are positively related to credit risk, resulting in a positive correlation between cash and spreads. In contrast, spreads … are negatively related to the ``exogenous'' component of cash holdings that is independent of credit risk factors …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004980203

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