We set out a reference chronology for annual UK inflation, identifying nine complete cycles between 1958 and 1990 …

terms of trade. We take this evidence to suggest that the propagation mechanism for business cycles in Greece is fairly …

an effect of a US shock. More generally, the models have a good forecasting performance over short horizons. …

A large literature suggests that standard exchange rate models cannot outperform a random walk forecast and that the … premia contains valuable information for forecasting future spot exchange rates and that exchange rate dynamics display non …-linearities. This Paper proposes a term-structure forecasting model of exchange rates based on a regime-switching vector equilibrium …

Models based on economic theory have serious problems at forecasting exchange rates better than simple univariate … this paper, we propose to forecast exchange rates with a large Bayesian VAR (BVAR), using a panel of 33 exchange rates vis … forecasting. In addition, we adopt a driftless random walk prior, so that cross-dynamics matter for forecasting only if there is …

index and to evaluate the role of financial variables in forecasting. We considered two models which allow forecasting based … univariate methods for forecasting inflation at one, three, six, and twelve months and industrial production at one and three … months. We find that financial variables do help forecasting inflation, but do not help forecasting industrial production. …