Showing 1 - 10 of 24
Using firm-level data, we provide evidence that, although monetary policy affects real investment, the effect operates differentially: the greater its export intensity the less a firm is affected by tight money. We examine several interpretations and conclude that the impact is transmitted...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504673
the prices of aggregate risk from bond yields and stock returns using a no-arbitrage model. Using these risk prices, we … total wealth, most of it human wealth. This wealth is much less risky than stock market wealth. Events in long-term bond …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083953
The relative popularity of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) and fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) varies considerably both across countries and over time. We ask how movements in current and expected future interest rates affect the share of ARMs in total mortgage issuance. Using a nine-country panel...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084239
A reduction in inflation can fuel run-ups in housing prices if people suffer from money illusion. For example, investors who decide whether to rent or buy a house by simply comparing monthly rent and mortgage payments do not take into account that inflation lowers future real mortgage costs. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067397
Intra-day interest rates are zero. Consequently, a foreign exchange dealer can short a vulnerable currency in the morning, close this position in the afternoon, and never face an interest cost. This tactic might seem especially attractive in times of crisis, since it suggests an immunity to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124023
This paper reviews the monetary transmission mechanism in low income countries (LICs). We use monetary transmission in advanced and emerging markets as a benchmark to identify aspects of the transmission mechanism that may operate differently in LICs. In particular, we focus on the effects of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008466328
Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about market expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because the presence of a timevarying risk premium often renders the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083547
The Beveridge-Nelson (BN) technique provides a forecast-based method of decomposing a variable such as output, into …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123570
within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools of risk management that may be used to quantify and forecast the risks … forecast the risks of worldwide deflation for horizons of up to two years. Although recently fears of worldwide deflation have …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123620
This paper applies the Meese-Rogoff (1983a) methodology to the stock market. We compare the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of various time-series and fundamentals-based models of aggregate stock prices. We stick as close as possible to the original Meese-Rogoff sample and methodology. Just...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124429