We use payroll data on 1.2 million bank employee years in the Austrian, German, and Swiss banking sector to identify … document an economically significant correlation of incentive pay with both the level and volatility of bank trading income … bonus share in the capital markets divisions with the strength of incentive pay in unrelated bank divisions like retail …

) focus and diversification using a unique data set that is able to identify individual bank loan exposures to different … deterioration in bank monitoring quality at high levels of risk and a deterioration in bank monitoring quality upon lending … expansion into newer or competitive industries. We find that industrial loan diversification reduces bank return while …

The Beveridge-Nelson (BN) technique provides a forecast-based method of decomposing a variable such as output, into …

within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools of risk management that may be used to quantify and forecast the risks … forecast the risks of worldwide deflation for horizons of up to two years. Although recently fears of worldwide deflation have …

-time forecasts of the real price of oil can be more accurate than the no-change forecast at horizons up to one year. In some cases … prices, forecasts based on AR and ARMA models, and the no-change forecast. In addition, these VAR models have consistently … forecasters to interpret their oil price forecast in light of economic models and to evaluate its sensitivity to alternative …