Inflation is a far from homogeneous phenomenon, a fact often neglected in modelling consumer price inflation. This … study, the first of its kind for an emerging market country, investigates gains to inflation forecast accuracy by …

Inflation targeting central banks will be hampered without good models to assist them to be forward-looking. Many … current inflation models fail to forecast turning points adequately, because they miss key underlying long-run influences. The … world is on the cusp of a dramatic turning point in inflation. If inflation falls rapidly, such models can underestimate the …

Models for the twelve-month-ahead US rate of inflation, measured by the chain weighted consumer expenditure deflator … prices; introducing non-linearities to proxy state dependence in the inflation process; and replacing the information …

unemployment-inflation tradeoff might indicate not something to be exploited but instead only policy-makers' correctly …

The Paper presents a model in which the exogenous money supply causes changes in the inflation rate and the output … growth rate. While inflation and growth rate changes occur simultaneously, the inflation acts as a tax on the return to human … the income velocity of money that can break the otherwise stable relation between money, inflation, and output growth …

situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation …

We develop and estimate a structural model of inflation that allows for a fraction of firms that use a backward looking … measures of marginal cost as the relevant determinant of inflation, as the theory suggests, instead of an ad-hoc output gap …. Real marginal costs are a significant and quantitatively important determinant of inflation. Backward looking price setting …

This paper estimates the NAIRU (standing for the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) as a parameter that … varies over time. The NAIRU is the unemployment rate that is consistent with a constant rate of inflation. Its value is … determined in an econometric model in which the inflation rate depends on its own past values (‘inertia’), demand shocks proxied …

In this paper, we formulate a statistical model of inflation that combines data on survey expectations and the … inflation target set by central banks.. Our model produces inflation forecasts that are aligned with survey expectations … the inflation target set by the monetary authority to examine the effectiveness of monetary policy in forming inflation …