The Friedman rule states that steady-state welfare is maximized when there is deflation at the real rate of interest. Recent work by Khan et al. (2003) uses a richer model but still finds deflation optimal. In an otherwise standard new Keynesian model we show that, if households have hyperbolic...

This paper uses a two country DSGE model to examine the effects of tax-based versus expenditure-based fiscal consolidation in a currency union. We find three key results. First, given limited scope for monetary accommodation, tax-based consolidation tends to have smaller adverse effects on...

This paper gives money a role in providing cheap collateral in a model of banking; this means that, besides the Taylor Rule, monetary policy can affect the risk-premium on bank lending to firms by varying the supply of M0 in open market operations, so that even when the zero bound prevails...

This paper uses a DSGE model to examine the effects of an expansion in government spending in a liquidity trap. The spending multiplier can be much larger than in the normal situation if the liquidity trap is very prolonged, and the budgetary costs minimal. But given this "fiscal free lunch," it...

This paper investigates the sources of the widely noticed reduction in the volatility of American business cycles since the mid 1980s. Our analysis of reduced volatility emphasizes the sharp decline in the standard deviation of changes in real GDP, of the output gap, and of the inflation rate....

This paper models Chinese inflation using an output gap Phillips curve. Inflation modelling for the world’s sixth largest economy is a still under-researched topic. We estimate a partially forward-looking Phillips curve as well as traditional backward-looking Phillips curves. Using quarterly...

In this paper I examine optimal monetary policy and the informational implications of the Phillips curve in a stochastic model of a small open economy. It is assumed that the economy produces both traded and non-traded goods, that capital mobility is perfect and that the economy faces a variety...

This survey essay considers how rational expectations have changed our evaluation of monetary policy. In the first section, various underpinnings of the "Phillips curve" relation between inflation and output are reviewed. All are concluded to be products of particular institutional set-ups whose...

This paper has two aims. First, it provides simple theoretical models that highlight two channels whereby monetary shocks have permanent real effects and the interactions between these channels. Second, it presents an empirical dynamic model, covering a panel of EU countries, and derives the...

This Paper takes a new look at the long-run dynamics of inflation and unemployment in response to permanent changes in the growth rate of the money supply. We examine the Phillips curve from the perspective of what we call ‘frictional growth’, i.e. the interaction between money growth and...