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Illusive Persistence in German Unemployment

Tschernig, Rolf J.V.; Zimmermann, Klaus F - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1992

persistence. This view is questioned in the paper using German data on unemployment. A new class of time-series models, the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666959

Forecasting Stock Returns under Economic Constraints

Pettenuzzo, Davide; Timmermann, Allan G; Valkanov, Rossen - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013

We propose a new approach to imposing economic constraints on time-series forecasts of the equity premium. Economic constraints are used to modify the posterior distribution of the parameters of the predictive return regression in a way that better allows the model to learn from the data. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083895

Quantifying the Half-Life of Deviations from PPP: The Role of Economic Priors

Kilian, Lutz; Zha, Tao - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1999

The half-life of deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) plays a central role in the ongoing debate about the ability of macroeconomic models to account for the time series behaviour of the real exchange rate. The main contribution of this paper is a general framework in which alternative...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005792458

Endogenous Growth and Stochastic Trends

Fatás, Antonio - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1996

This paper shows that there exists a strong positive correlation between long-term growth rates and the persistence of … output fluctuations in a cross section of countries. We argue that the traditional explanation of persistence, a real …, output fluctuations are persistent and the degree of persistence is an increasing function of long-term growth rates. Growth …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124049

The Wealth-Consumption Ratio

Lustig, Hanno; van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn; Verdelhan, Adrien - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2012

We derive new estimates of total wealth, the returns on total wealth, and the wealth effect on consumption. We estimate the prices of aggregate risk from bond yields and stock returns using a no-arbitrage model. Using these risk prices, we compute total wealth as the price of a claim to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083953

Employee Satisfaction, Labor Market Flexibility, and Stock Returns Around The World

Edmans, Alex; Li, Lucius; Zhang, Chendi - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2014

We study the relationship between employee satisfaction and abnormal stock returns around the world, using lists of the … investing (“SRI”) strategies around the world. In particular, they emphasize the importance of taking institutional features …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083605

Corporate Social Responsibility and Firm Risk: Theory and Empirical Evidence

Albuquerque, Rui; Durnev, Artyom; Koskinen, Yrjö - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013

This paper presents an industry equilibrium model where firms can choose to engage in corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities. We model CSR activities as an investment in customer loyalty and show that CSR decreases systematic risk and increases firm value. These effects are stronger...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083749

Performance and Characteristics of Swedish Mutual Funds 1993-97

Dahlquist, Magnus; Engström, Stefan; Söderlind, Paul - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1999

The performance, and its characteristics, of Swedish-based equity and bond mutual funds are studied in detail. Accounting for survivorship biases, regular equity funds have a slight overperformance, equity funds with certain tax advantages have a negative performance (before tax), and bond funds...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136548

Analyzing Strongly Periodic Series in the Frequency Domain: A Comparison of Alternative Approaches with Applications

Artis, Michael J; Clavel, Jose Garcia; Hoffmann, Mathias; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007

Strongly periodic series occur frequently in many disciplines. This paper reviews one specific approach to analyzing such series viz. the harmonic regression approach. In this paper, the five major methods suggested under this approach are critically reviewed and compared, and their empirical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504395

On the Selection of Forecasting Models

Inoue, Atsushi; Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2003

It is standard in applied work to select forecasting models by ranking candidate models by their prediction mean squared error (PMSE) in simulated out-of-sample (SOOS) forecasts. Alternatively, forecast models may be selected using information criteria (IC). We compare the asymptotic and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504404