We study the inflation uncertainty reported by individual forecasters in the Survey of Professional Forecasters 1969 … asset pricing. We find that inflation uncertainty fluctuates over time in a way that traditional time series models fail to … capture. Instead, uncertainty is highly correlated with the level of inflation, in particular with recent positive inflation …

Inflation is a far from homogeneous phenomenon, a fact often neglected in modelling consumer price inflation. This … study, the first of its kind for an emerging market country, investigates gains to inflation forecast accuracy by … aggregating weighted forecasts of the sub-component price indices, versus forecasting the aggregate consumer price index itself …

This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and …

components improves forecast accuracy of the aggregate forecast of euro area and US inflation in some situations, but not in …

for consumer price inflation underline the methodological points, and suggest the usefulness of thinking about sectoral …Inflation targeting central banks will be hampered without good models to assist them to be forward-looking. Many … current inflation models fail to forecast turning points adequately, because they miss key underlying long-run influences. The …

Models for the twelve-month-ahead US rate of inflation, measured by the chain weighted consumer expenditure deflator … prices; introducing non-linearities to proxy state dependence in the inflation process; and replacing the information …

This paper discusses three aspects of stabilization and international integration: the real wage; inflation; and the … real effective exchange rate. Using empirical evidence on inflation and the real effective exchange rate, we evaluate the …