United States during the 1990s. Proponents of this approach recommend that, when inflation is moderate but still above the … long-run objective, the central bank should not move immediately to fight inflation, but rather wait for exogenous … circumstances — such as favourable supply shocks and unforeseen recessions — to deliver the desired reduction in inflation. While …

pronounced increase of aggregate US producer price inflation. …

at containing inflation and the deviation of output from potential within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools … this loss function under weak assumptions may be estimated from realizations for inflation and output gap data even in the … parameters with respect to the inflation and output objectives during the Greenspan period. We formally test for and reject the …

indicator and forecasting properties of the real interest rate gap for inflation, both in the model and in the data. Our results … suggest that the real interest rate gap has value as an inflation indicator, supporting the ‘neo-Wicksellian framework …

channel through which monetary policy lowers the volatility of inflation and, even more importantly, output. …

inflation and the difficulties of East European central banks in pursuing non-inflationary policies. The main obstacles are the …

situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation …

This paper estimates the NAIRU (standing for the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) as a parameter that … varies over time. The NAIRU is the unemployment rate that is consistent with a constant rate of inflation. Its value is … determined in an econometric model in which the inflation rate depends on its own past values (‘inertia’), demand shocks proxied …

In this paper, we formulate a statistical model of inflation that combines data on survey expectations and the … inflation target set by central banks.. Our model produces inflation forecasts that are aligned with survey expectations … the inflation target set by the monetary authority to examine the effectiveness of monetary policy in forming inflation …