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models of expectations formation that rely on econometric learning. Some apparently natural policy rules turn out to imply … expectational instability of private agents' learning. We use the standard New Keynesian model to illustrate this problem and survey … learning. We then consider some practical concerns such as measurement errors in private expectations, observability of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666454
difficulty of these models. We consider its significance using the learning approach to expectations formation by employing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666726
Survey data on household expectations of inflation are routinely used in economic analysis, yet it is not clear to what extent households are able to articulate their expectations in survey interviews. We propose an alternative approach to recovering households' implicit expectations of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067515
(constant gain) least-squares learning, for a range of gain parameters. We find that for operational forms of policy rules, i … Honkapohja (2003, 2006) deliver robust learning stability. In contrast, many proposed alternatives become unstable under learning …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498187
agents have perfectly rational expectations, is unstable if in fact these agents follow standard adaptive learning rules … rule. These strong results extend to the case in which there is simultaneous learning by the policy maker and the private …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666844
that is both locally determinate and stable under adaptive learning by private agents. A reaction function that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791257
stability under learning. Appropriately designed expectations-based rules can yield optimal rational expectations equilibria … that are both determinate and stable under learning. Some simple instrument rules and approximate targeting rules also have … implications of expectation shocks not arising from transitional learning effects. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791392
and monetary policies proposed by Leeper (1991), for stability under learning of the rational expectations equilibria (REE …). Our first result is that the fiscalist REE in the model of McCallum (2001) is not locally stable under learning. In … domains for which the fiscal theory solution, in which fiscal variables affect the price level, can be a stable outcome under …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136683
A central tenet of inflation targeting is that establishing and maintaining well-anchored inflation expectations are essential. In this paper, we reexamine the role of key elements of the inflation targeting framework towards this end, in the context of an economy where economic agents have an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791794
Historical estimates of the Fisher effect and the informational content in the yield curve may not be relevant after a change in monetary policy. This paper uses a small dynamic rational expectations model with staggered price setting to study how central bank preferences (and thereby monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497757