risk of selecting a poor forecasting model, and improve both statistical and economic measures of out-of-sample forecast …

asset markets and indivisible labor supply. Imperfect aggregation manifests itself through preference shocks in the …

Evaluation of forecast optimality in economics and finance has almost exclusively been conducted under the assumption … of mean squared error loss. Under this loss function optimal forecasts should be unbiased and forecast errors serially … uncorrelated at the single-period horizon with increasing variance as the forecast horizon grows. Using analytical results we show …

within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools of risk management that may be used to quantify and forecast the risks … forecast the risks of worldwide deflation for horizons of up to two years. Although recently fears of worldwide deflation have …

welfare state. More generally, the paper develops a theory of collective beliefs and motivated cognitions, including those …