Studies of bond return predictability find a puzzling disparity between strong statistical evidence of return predictability and the failure to convert return forecasts into economic gains. We show that resolving this puzzle requires accounting for important features of bond return models such...

Our objective in this paper is to examine whether one can use option-implied information to improve mean-variance portfolio selection with a large number of stocks, and to document which aspects of option-implied information are most useful for improving the out-of-sample performance of...

Three mutually uncorrelated economic disturbances that we measure empirically explain 85% of the quarterly variation in real stock market wealth since 1952. A model is employed to interpret these disturbances in terms of three latent primitive shocks. In the short run, shocks that affect the...

Theoretical asset pricing models routinely assume that investors have heterogeneous information. We provide direct evidence of the importance of information asymmetry for asset prices and investor demands using plausibly exogenous variation in the supply of information caused by the closure or...

In this article, we show how to analyse analytically the equilibrium policies and prices in an economy with a stochastic investment opportunity set and incomplete financial markets, when agents have power utility over both intermediate consumption and terminal wealth, and face portfolio...

The present Paper investigates the effects of incorporating illiquidity in a standard dynamic portfolio choice problem. Lack of liquidity means that an asset cannot be immediately traded at any point in time. We find the portfolio share of financial wealth invested in illiquid assets given the...

This paper examines the extent to which individual investors provide liquidity to the stock market, and whether they are compensated for doing so.We show that the ability of aggregate retail order imbalances, contrarian in nature, to predict short-term future returns is significantly enhanced...

We provide direct estimates of how agents trade off immediate costs and uncertain future benefits that occur in the very long run, 100 or more years away. We exploit a unique feature of housing markets in the U.K. and Singapore, where residential property ownership takes the form of either...

We use a repeated survey of an Italian bank’s clients to test whether investors’ risk aversion increases following the 2008 financial crisis. We find that both a qualitative and a quantitative measure of risk aversion increases substantially after the crisis. After considering standard...