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Real-Time Model Uncertainty in the United States: the Fed from 1996-2003
Ironside, Brian; Tetlow, Robert J. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005
We study 30 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro model used by the Federal Reserve Board staff for forecasting and policy analysis. To do this, we exploit archives of the model code, coefficients, baseline databases and stochastic shock sets stored after each FOMC meeting from the model’s...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662266
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The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level - identification and testing for the UK in the 1970s
Fan, Jingwen; Minford, Patrick; Ou, Zhirong - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013
We investigate whether the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) can explain UK inflation in the 1970s. We confront the identification problem involved by setting up the FTPL as a structural model for the episode and pitting it against an alternative Orthodox model; the models have a reduced...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083765
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The role of fiscal policy in Britain's Great Inflation
Fan, Jingwen; Minford, Patrick; Ou, Zhirong - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2014
We investigate whether the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) can explain UK inflation in the 1970s. We confront the identification problem involved by setting up the FTPL as a structural model for the episode and pitting it against an alternative Orthodox model; the models have a reduced...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083838
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Price Competition in Markets with Customer Testing: The Captive Customer Effect
Hoppe, Heidrun C.; Lehmann-Grube, Ulrich - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007
We introduce product differentiation into the analysis of price competition in markets where suppliers test customers in order to assess whether they will pay for received goods or services. We find that, if the degree of differentiation is sufficiently high, suppliers may improve the average...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067671
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Do Voters Vote Sincerely?
Degan, Arianna; Merlo, Antonio - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007
In this paper we address the following question: To what extent is the hypothesis that voters vote sincerely testable or falsifiable? We show that using data only on how individuals vote in a single election, the hypothesis that voters vote sincerely is irrefutable, regardless of the number of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662163
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Employment, Family Union and Childbearing Decisions in Great Britain
Aassve, Arnstein; Burgess, Simon; Dickson, Matt; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2003
in fertility levels. Changes in union formation and fertility levels, on the other hand, do have a significant impact on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504302
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The Output Cost of Gender Discrimination: A Model-Based Macroeconomic Estimate
Cavalcanti, Tiago; Tavares, José - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007
a gender wage gap, associated with lower female labour force participation rates and higher fertility. This paper … presents a growth model where saving, fertility and labour market participation are endogenously determined, and there is wage … through an increase in fertility. We find that for several countries a large fraction of the actual difference in output per …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504328
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Death and Development
Lorentzen, Peter L.; McMillan, John; Wacziarg, Romain - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005
fertility, and lower investment in physical and human capital. Furthermore, the feedback effect from economic prosperity to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504520
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Duration of Marriage, Fertility and Female Employment Opportunities in England and Wales in 1911
Crafts, Nicholas - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1988
shown that a substantial number of couples used birth control for 'spacing' as well as 'stopping' fertility. Moreover … good. In general the results obtained do not fit with the 'Princeton' view of the European fertility transition, with its …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504562
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Fiscal Sustainability and Demographics - Should We Save or Work More?
Andersen, Torben M - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008
dependency ratio driven by changes in fertility and longevity. For the former the smoothing argument may be appropriate, but not …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504685