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Banbura, Marta; Giannone, Domenico; Modugno, Michele; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2012

The term now-casting is a contraction for now and forecasting and has been used for a long-time in meteorology and recently also in economics In this paper we survey recent developments on economic now-casting with special focus on those models that formalize key features of how market...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084671

One Business Cycle and One Trend from (Many) Many Disaggregates

Quah, Danny - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1994

Typical analyses of trends and cycles take as given some (one) observable economic variable in whose time path a researcher wishes to find trend and cycle movements. But individual sectors and regions in aggregate economies move neither perfectly with nor independently of each other -- why is it...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136463

The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Quantifying and Forecasting Inflation Risks

Kilian, Lutz; Manganelli, Simone - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2003

In deciding a monetary policy stance, central bankers need to evaluate carefully the risks the current economic situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools of risk...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123620

The Forecasting Performance of Real Time Estimates of the Euro Area Output Gap

Marcellino, Massimiliano; Musso, Alberto - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010

This paper provides real time evidence on the usefulness of the euro area output gap as a leading indicator for … inflation and growth. A genuine real-time data set for the euro area is used, including vintages of several alternative gap …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468583

The Reliability of Real Time Estimates of the Euro Area Output Gap

Marcellino, Massimiliano; Musso, Alberto - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010

This paper provides evidence on the reliability of euro area real-time output gap estimates, including those provided … several sets of euro area output gap estimates available from 1999 to 2006. It turns out that real-time estimates of the … euro area output gap are very uncertain. The uncertainty is mostly due to parameter instability, while data revisions seem …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468648

The Diversity of Forecasts from Macroeconomic Models of the U.S. Economy

Wieland, Volker; Wolters, Maik H - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010

This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated U.S. recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the U.S. economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008530347

Credit, Financial Stability, and the Macroeconomy

Taylor, Alan M. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2015

Since the 2008 global financial crisis, and after decades of relative neglect, the importance of the financial system and its episodic crises as drivers of macroeconomic outcomes has attracted fresh scrutiny from academics, policy makers, and practitioners. Theoretical advances are following a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011213304

Central Banking as a Political Principal-Agent Problem

Fratianni, Michele; von Hagen, Jürgen; Waller, Christopher - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1993

An inflation and stabilization bias may arise as a result of the principal-agent nature of monetary policy. Both depend on the degree of political uncertainty and the type of relationship between central bankers and the incumbent political leaders. Specifically, our analysis indicates how a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067589

The Timing of Monetary Policy Shocks

Olivei, Giovanni; Tenreyro, Silvana - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2006

A vast empirical literature has documented delayed and persistent effects of monetary policy shocks on output. We show that this finding results from the aggregation of output impulse responses that differ sharply depending on the timing of the shock: When the monetary policy shock takes place...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789206

Will EMU Increase Eurosclerosis?

Bentolila, Samuel; Saint-Paul, Gilles - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2000

In this paper we study the relationship between labour market institutions and monetary policy. We use a simple macroeconomic framework to show how optimal monetary policy rules depend on labour institutions (labour adjustment costs, and nominal and real wage rigidity) and social preferences...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124134