have argued that trade makes war less likely, yet World War I erupted at a time of unprecedented globalization. This paper …Existing theories of pre-emptive war typically predict that the leading country may choose to launch a war on a … was Japan who launched a war against the West in 1941, not the West that pre-emptively attacked Japan. Similarly, many …

This paper analyses theoretically and empirically the relationship between trade and war. We show that the intuition … that trade promotes peace is only partially true even in a model where trade is beneficial to all, war reduces trade and … leaders take into account the costs of war. When war can occur because of the presence of asymmetric information, the …

.S., we compare this bias between U.S. Cold War (CW) allies to non-CW allies, before and after the CW ended. The results show …

The paper provides a comparative history of the economic impact of the Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars. By focussing … on the relative price evidence, it is possible to show that the conflict had major economic effects around the world …

all world leaders from 1875 to 2004, we exploit inherent randomness in the success or failure of assassination attempts to … pronounced effect on history. …